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From the July 2006 issue of Investment Advisor • Subscribe!
Behind the Numbers, with Sam Stovall
According to sam Stovall, S&P's chief investment strategist, it's not time to be bearish on the market just yet. "Our feeling is that the correction we just experienced in the market is really just a correction and not a new bear market. Bear markets generally creep up on you and are like water torture before they finish, whereas a correction is just a sharp slap in the face and that's what we just got. Interestingly enough when I looked at bull market corrections since 1970, more than two out of every three occurred in less than two months and about half of them occurred in one month. So a sharp, one-month decline is more the norm than an aberration." Stovall says S&P is above its 15% benchmark on international stocks right now, going with a 20% recommended exposure, and is neutral on its recommended exposure to domestic stocks at 45%. Stovall says he expects the Fed to stop raising rates for the year at 5.5% for fed funds and 5.6% for 10-year notes.--Ryan G. Murphy