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From the October 2008 issue of Investment Advisor • Subscribe!
Behind the Numbers, with David Kelly
"We've seem to have hit somewhat of a turning point on the dollar, so we want to be primarily in U.S. stocks now," explains David Kelly, chief market strategist for JPMorgan Funds and a new member of our Asset Allocation panel. "The dollar has turned and it's hard to tell if it will continue, but the principal issue has to do with the relationship between oil and the dollar," he continues. "When oil prices come down, it helps with our trade deficit which helps strengthen the dollar." Kelly notes some risks to his forecast as well, his biggest concern being geopolitical disruption to oil. "If Israel decides to attack Iran because of Iran's nuclear program. Or if anything makes the Persian Gulf blow up, that would be negative for the U.S. economy, stocks in particular," he says.